Journal
Soft commodities and seasonal stories that age badly
Seasonality is real until the weather or the policy shift breaks it. How we treat seasonal patterns inside a price trend assessment.
Agricultural markets love seasonal narratives because they often work — until they do not. A responsible soft commodity price trend assessment uses seasonality as a starting map, not as destiny.
Anchor seasonality to this year’s constraints
Last year’s harvest calendar is not this year’s. Labour, logistics, and export rules can shift the usual window by weeks. We ask which constraints are already visible before drawing the familiar curve.
Separate farmgate from export parity
Local buying pressure and exportable surplus can diverge. Assessments that blur them produce tender advice that looks clever on a chart and fails at the silo.
Write the exit
If the seasonal case depends on a weather pattern that has not yet arrived, say so. Checkpoints should include what you will do if the rains refuse the script.